To meet this anticipated demand, the major OPEC+ members (led by Saudi Arabia) agreed to restart more wells in October, adding an additional 2.2 million barrels per day that had been idled. Even so, the announcement barely depressed prices: a barrel of Brent crude is currently hovering around US$67. OPEC sees this as a validation of its strategy, but admits that in recent years its internal forecasts have been overly optimistic and do not always coincide with those of other analysts.

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In its internal projections, OPEC estimates that global oil demand will grow by 1.3 million barrels per day this year, a pace nearly 40% faster than estimates from major financial firms like Goldman Sachs. This view contrasts with that of other entities: for example, the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects a record surplus of more than 3 million barrels per day by 2026, due to slower demand in China and booming production in the United States and other regions In short, OPEC speaks of a tight market, while others predict an oversupply.

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These conflicting forecasts reflect global uncertainty. If the OPEC deficit is confirmed, we could see a spike in oil prices, which would make gasoline, diesel, and energy in general more expensive for the global economy. But the U.S. government projects the opposite: the Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that global reserves will grow by more than 2 million barrels per day in the near future . Under this scenario, it estimates that a barrel of Brent crude oil would fall to around US$51 by 2026. Ultimately, the oil market will be closely monitoring economic factors (global growth, Chinese demand, etc.) and political factors (OPEC+ decisions, US shale production, etc.). What OPEC+ does in the coming months will be key, as it will directly influence the price of crude oil and its effects on inflation and the global economy.